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Arnold Kling has a Ph.D. in economics from MIT; founded homefair.com, one of the very first commercial websites, in 1994; separated from Homefair in January 2000 after it was sold to Homestore; is author of Under the Radar: Starting Your Internet Business without Venture Capital, and is an essayist. Send comments to us at econ@corante.com

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February 10, 2004

Basic Decision Theory

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Posted by Arnold

I look at Bush vs. Russert and conclude,


Decision-making under uncertainty means living with probabilities, not absolutes. Tim Russert needs to take a class in AP Statistics.

As an aside, I would note that people on the Right tend to be disappointed with Bush's performance and people on the Left tend to be disappointed with Russert's performance. I suspect that is because people on each side think that they are in a stronger position than they really are, and they are disappointed to find that that their side does not look impregnable.

I really hope that whoever wins the election in November, he does not get as demonized by the losing side as Bush has been by the Democrats. That is, I hope that if the Democrat wins, the Republicans don't engage in rage-aholic behavior, and conversely.

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