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January 09, 2004
The Fog of Business
Posted by Arnold
In a wide-ranging essay, I write,
No one lives in more of a fog than an entrepreneur. Almost by definition, you are the only one who believes that your business idea makes any sense. Nine times out of ten, the skeptics are right...
Technological progress has many sources of fog. We do not exactly know which scientific studies will lead to interesting results. When something important is discovered, we do not necessarily know which are the most promising applications. We do not know which promising applications will actually be successful in the market. Thomas Edison thought that a phonograph would be used by business executives to record and ship speeches to workers.
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1. David Thomson on January 12, 2004 10:54 AM writes...
This is why a so-called “planned society” is inherently ludicrous. Thank God that Americans believe that a number of failures do not mean that one’s life is now meaningless. The right to fail is mandatory if we are to have a viable society. We only ask that one gets back up and tries again. And yes, it is often impossible to predict how an invention will actually be used. It seems that many, if not even most inventors of the past, would be stunned to see what eventually became of their pet projects.
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